Green China

Urban Land Institute had a nice article in their February 2006 issue
about urban development in China. Like in every other category,
China's growth in this area is staggering. The article says a half a
billion rural folks will be moving to cities by 2050, and that the
increase in high-rise residential and office space in Shanghai will be
greater than the total office space now present in New York City.

With this explosion comes the opportunity to cut off the negative
consequences of suburban sprawl before things get out of hand. A
variety of factors have created a low-density, automobile-dependent
culture in our country, which is one the main reasons the US is such a
massive guzzler of energy.

The Chinese, especially those in the exploding middle class, are
starting to develop a taste for the car. The number of cars in that
country has gone from 10 million in 1995 to ten times that ten years
later.

China's centrally planned economy is, in some respects,
well-positioned to address urban development and funnel it in greener
directions. It can authorize massive mass transit projects, for
example, more easily than is done here in the US. On the other hand,
local decision-making in the US has the positive effect of driving
infrastructure investments where the market is calling for them; too
often in China, Beijing decides on a project somewhere, and halfway
through its construction, it's clear that location was the wrong place
for that project.

We keep our eye on China for a number of reasons, as it grows into a
political and economic superpower. I'll be keeping my eye on it for
another reason: to see how its cities develop over time.