Those Jobs are Gone

 

This podcast of Ezra Klein interviewing Bill Gates is making the rounds in my social feeds. Gates is a trusted authority on technology, and he sounds an ominous warning on the disruption continued advances in artificial intelligence will wreak on our economy. "Those jobs are gone" is as existential as it gets, given that the vast majority of us are not independently wealthy so count on gainful employment to provide for our families and give us dignity. 

If we go back in time, the steady march of technology can be opposed but never successfully for too long. We really can't put the genie back in the bottle no more how hard we want to or try to. And, with that progress has come wrenching adjustments that often imperil the most vulnerable in our society. Industrialization widened the gap between the have's and have-not's, the advent of the Internet similarly led to a "digital divide," and the accelerating pace of AI sophistication may swallow entire industries whole.

Throughout history, jobs that used to employ millions became defunct over time, which has its cons but also its pros. Mankind collectively once exerted a large proportion of its existence to back-breaking work on farms and then on factories, and now the production of food and goods is largely automated so that things have gotten way cheaper and way more accessible. But it has also meant that those who worked those farms and factories have needed to repurpose their time and skills to the jobs that remained or risk being left behind. Easier said than done in many cases.

We'll leave for another day just what kinds of skills and experiences will survive the AI wave. The point I want to make is that the jobs have always gone away. The question is what comes after and how can we get there in ways that lift all boats.