Too Short for a Blog Post, Too Long for a Tweet 316

 

Here are a few excerpts from a book I recently read, "The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics," by Tim Harford.

I worry about a world in which many people will believe anything, but I worry far more about one in which people believe nothing beyond their own preconceptions.

Many of us refuse to look at statistical evidence because we’re afraid of being tricked. We think we’re being worldly-wise by adopting the Huff approach of cynically dismissing all statistics. But we’re not. We’re admitting defeat to the populists and propagandists who want us to shrug, give up on logic and evidence, and retreat into believing whatever makes us feel good. 

I want us to do something different. I want to give you the confidence to pick up the telescope of statistics and use it to scrutinize the world. I want to help you understand the logic behind statistical truths and escape the grip of the flawed logic, emotions, and cognitive biases that shape the falsehoods.

The counterintuitive result is that presenting people with a detailed and balanced account of both sides of the argument may actually push people away from the center rather than pull them in. If we already have strong opinions, then we’ll seize upon welcome evidence, but we’ll find opposing data or arguments irritating. This biased assimilation of new evidence means that the more we know, the more partisan we’re able to be on a fraught issue.