Here's a recap of my predictions for 2008, posted in December 2007:
1. Russia will destabilize to the point that it will soar past Iran
and Iraq as the US's number one foreign policy conundrum.
I'm still waiting for this to happen, so we'll call this prediction
2. China will experience a spectacularly catastrophic environmental
event embarrassingly close to the Beijing Olympics.
Unfortunately, instead of "spectacularly catastrophic environmental
event," we got Sichuan.
3. Facebook will find the path to profitability - and an even higher
valuation - by cleaning up its interface and facilitating
click-through purchases of products and services; example: books on
your virtual bookshelf and favorite electronic gizmos can be dragged
and dropped into a shopping cart.
There's still time, Mark Zuckerberg!
4. College football will have a scandal that makes Mike Vick, Tim
Donaghy, and steroids look forgettable by comparison, and it will
involve sex, money, and race.
I haven't followed, but it looks like the year went by relatively
scandal-free, unless you count the lack of a playoff system that is so
glaring that even Barack Obama had to chime in more than once.
5. Bottled water will further plummet in popularity as a result of a
fatality associated with tainted water.
Thankfully, I was wrong; and thankfully, tap is chic, as cities try to
outdo one another in their green bona fides.
6. The presidential and vice presidential teams in the November
general election will include a woman (Clinton), a Hispanic
(Richardson), a Mormon (Romney), and a Jew (Bloomberg).
Well, at least Clinton and Richardson will have White House addresses,
but otherwise I went oh-fer-four here.
7. Two words: Apple TV.
Steve Jobs, isn't our living room ripe enough for your design and
In summary, another mediocre year for this closet Nostradamus. And so
onto 2009. In no particular order:
1. At least three major media companies are going to go belly-up.
2. Barack Obama will experience an unforeseen, 9/11-like event, and
will have his "deer in the headlights" moment just like W did
(remember "My Pet Goat"?), but like W he will find his voice soon
after, and unlike W, he will inspire us to some action that decades
from now we will be glad we were forced to take.
3. The Dow Jones will be at 13,000 by the end of the year.
4. South Asians will dominate the small and big screens.
5. Despite Obama's best efforts, Afghanistan will destabilize - and
it will not be pretty.
6. Kim Jong Il will die, North Korea will open, and South Korea will
impress the world by being ready to bear the massive burden of helping
its beleaguered neighbor.
7. Obesity in America will reach epidemic proportions, as a huge
spike in deaths dominates and ultimately shipwrecks discussions about
national health care reform.
8. We will not be talking about Sarah Palin by the end of the year.
9. One or more of the big Chinese car makers - BYD, Chery, Donfeng,
and/or SAIC - will be household names in the US.