Predictions for the Not-So-Distant Future

In December 1999, I posted on my website an outrageous prediction for
each of the next ten years. With 2005 almost in the books and 2006 on
its way, let's take a look at how I did.

"2000 – Y2K devastates less technologically-advanced nations like
Russia and China, prompting US, Japan, and Finland to send "relief
aid" in the form of technology experts." The only relief here was
that Y2K turned out to be a non-event.

"2001 –The Internet changes the way we take in entertainment and news,
eliminate radio, TV, and newspapers as we know them now." Well,
technically this is true, but that's too generic of a prediction for
me to really get any credit.

"2002 – Ten percent of Fortune 500 CEO's are women." I don't think
we're there yet, even in 2005; maybe one percent?

"2003 – Virtual reality becomes the next 'killer app,' spawning a new
generation of video games, business conferences, and "Total Recall"
vacations." I'm still dumb-founded that VR didn't take off more,
although flight simulations and gaming graphics are so advanced that
perhaps that's good enough.

"2004 – Public libraries merge with Barnes & Nobles, creating
government-subsidized public bookstores and coffee shops." I'm still
surprised retail bookstores have survived, given how easy it is to buy
books online, how nice some public libraries are getting, and how
expensive rent and inventory is; maybe this prediction is just a few
years away.

"2005 – Sports records are shattered as scientists develop techniques
to maximize muscle use." Well, if by "develop techniques" I meant
"concoct illegal steroids," then I nailed this one.

"2006 -- Major race summit ushers in unprecedented economic equality
and racial reconciliation." There's still hope for this one, although
I think the race summit would have to be preceded by some sort of
major race-based blowout, so if we want to get to reconciliation we're
probably going to have to feel some pain first.

"2007 -- Jetson-style travel is introduced, shooting 'people trams'
along pipes from point A to point B." '07 seemed so far away at the
time that this futuristic ideal didn't seem so crazy then.

"2008 -- First woman president of the United States: Hillary Rodham
Clinton. First gentleman: William Jefferson Clinton." Anything can
happen in the next three years, but right now this isn't so outlandish
of a prediction.

"2009 – Mind-recognition software allows for typing by thinking the
words." We're getting close here, although the technological advances
could be derailed by people queasy about things like MRI's that can
tell whether you are lying or not.

Well, I didn't do so good, did I? Give me credit for sounding a note
of caution about the stock market; here's an excerpt from another
piece I posted in December 1999:

"Everybody's jumping into the market, which is good for all of us. But
not everyone knows what they're doing, which is bad for all of us.
Every other commercial on a major sports telecast is for an electronic
brokerage: eTrade, Ameritrade, Schwab.com. The Internet really has
changed everything, but when the euphoria is over, who will win and
who will lose? Right now, everyone's winning and no one's losing;
that's a sign that something's got to give."

So, any new predictions for 2006, now that we've gotten to 2005? OK,
I'll bite. Here are '06 predictions about '06:

1. America turns the corner on Iraq, but terrorism rears its ugly head
in a new place.

2. Jeb Bush and Condi Rice solidify their status as the front-running
Republican ticket for 2008.

3. Between GM and Ford, one will declare bankruptcy and the other will
be bought out by a non-US carmaker.

4. Google's stock price will plunge.

5. Super Bowl XL will be decided by more than 20 points.

6. There will be two new reality TV shows involving religion.